--- title: "Half Full Cup case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Half Full Cup ($55.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 44.32% over 28 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup rendered: 2026-11-11T17:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Half Full Cup](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Half Full Cup A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=all) Price · $55.73 · 111 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $50.15 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 44.32% · 28 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min -0.5% 57.8% 116.0% **Small sample.** 28 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=7d) | 22 | 40.44% ±74.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup) | 28 | 44.32% ±66.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/half-full-cup?window=all) | 28 | 44.32% ±66.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $598 1,195 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $525 1,051 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $508 1,015 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $156 312 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $118 235 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $115 231 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $112 223 coins | 8.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $111 223 coins | 8.9% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.68× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $84.39 169 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $82.68 165 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 12.0% | $26.25 52.5 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 56.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 19 | 15.8 | 1.20× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=half-full-cup) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins $82.68 165 coins 1.48x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) Hidden $55.73 111 coins $26.25 52.5 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 15:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $55.73 111 coins $112 223 coins 2.00x 2026-11-07 15:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $55.73 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 9.5% classified 1.0% covert 11.0% restricted 5.0% Classified 5.0% uncommon 12.0% Consumer Grade 56.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt