--- title: "Hardened case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hardened ($52.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 126.06% over 164 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hardened](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hardened A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=all) Price · $52.50 · 105 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $47.24 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 126.06% · 164 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 126.06% ±44.16 164 openings since tracking started · 126.06% ±44.16 164 openings -0.5% 137.5% 275.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=24h) | 8 | 74.75% ±200.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=7d) | 54 | 94.50% ±77.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened) | 164 | 126.06% ±44.2 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardened?window=all) | 164 | 126.06% ±44.2 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 164 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 20.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $744 1,489 coins | 23.6% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $341 681 coins | 21.6% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $102 204 coins | 15.1% | 21 | 11.5 | 1.83× | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $64.02 128 coins | 9.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $49.51 99.01 coins | 7.3% | 15 | 11.5 | 1.31× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.16 16.31 coins | 1.7% | 11 | 16.4 | 0.67× | | [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 0.6% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 53.7% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 81 | 88.1 | 0.92× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 23.97x 2026-11-04 18:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 23.97x 2026-11-03 00:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $744 1,489 coins 14.18x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $744 1,489 coins 14.18x 2026-11-04 09:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $744 1,489 coins 14.18x 2026-11-03 01:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $744 1,489 coins 14.18x 2026-11-03 00:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hardened) [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $8.16 16.31 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $102 204 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins $102 204 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $52.50 105 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.50 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.8% #EB4B4B 1.5% Knives 3.0% gold 7.0% restricted 17.0% other 7.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 53.7% best hit $1,258 (23.97x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt