--- title: "Hardpoint case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hardpoint ($13.91) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 77.11% over 202 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hardpoint](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hardpoint A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=all) Price · $13.91 · 27.81 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $12.51 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.11% · 202 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 82.06% ±25.71 136 openings 30 days · 77.11% ±21.09 202 openings since tracking started · 77.11% ±21.09 202 openings 55.5% 82.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=7d) | 136 | 82.06% ±25.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint) | 202 | 77.11% ±21.1 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hardpoint?window=all) | 202 | 77.11% ±21.1 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 202 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,113 2,226 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $215 429 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $145 289 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $96.97 194 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $85.62 171 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $75.70 151 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $61.60 123 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $47.57 95.13 coins | 8.6% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $40.72 81.43 coins | 11.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $33.57 67.14 coins | 10.7% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $25.41 50.82 coins | 10.2% | 5 | 10.1 | 0.50× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $22.37 44.74 coins | 8.9% | 4 | 10.1 | 0.40× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $17.02 34.03 coins | 13.6% | 27 | 20.2 | 1.34× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 65.9% | $1.58 3.15 coins | 8.3% | 143 | 133.2 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hardpoint) [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $85.62 171 coins 6.16x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $13.91 27.81 coins $47.57 95.13 coins 3.42x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $17.02 34.03 coins 1.22x 2026-11-10 12:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $13.91 27.81 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.91 | 89.97% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 4.0% Extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.2% covert 12.0% Restricted 0.8% Industrial Grade 1.2% Immortal 2.3% gold 3.5% restricted 5.0% mil spec 5.0% Uncommon 65.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt