--- title: "Havoc case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Havoc ($3.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 8 items with odds, observed 88.69% over 1,101 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc rendered: 2026-11-11T20:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Havoc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Havoc A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=all) Price · $3.58 · 7.15 coins Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $3.22 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.69% · 1,101 openings, odds method Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68.99% ±37.33 236 openings 7 days · 88.40% ±19.10 901 openings 30 days · 88.69% ±17.28 1,101 openings since tracking started · 88.69% ±17.28 1,101 openings 31.0% 69.5% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=24h) | 236 | 68.99% ±37.3 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=7d) | 901 | 88.40% ±19.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc) | 1,101 | 88.69% ±17.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/havoc?window=all) | 1,101 | 88.69% ±17.3 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,101 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $86.04 172 coins | 18.7% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $54.06 108 coins | 11.8% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 24.2% | 20 | 17.6 | 1.14× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $14.73 29.45 coins | 9.2% | 29 | 22.0 | 1.32× | | [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.96 17.92 coins | 11.1% | 38 | 44.0 | 0.86× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.69 9.38 coins | 10.2% | 82 | 77.1 | 1.06× | | [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $1.12 2.24 coins | 11.5% | 367 | 363.3 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 51.0% | $0.20 0.41 coins | 3.3% | 553 | 561.5 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=havoc) [SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $4.69 9.38 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $48.70 97.39 coins 13.62x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $1.12 2.24 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $3.58 7.15 coins $1.12 2.24 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $4.69 9.38 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.15 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.58 | 89.93% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #4b69ff 0.7% restricted 2.3% industrial 9.0% mil spec 37.0% Mythical 51.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt