---
title: "Hawk case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hawk ($44.87) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 65.42% over 180 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hawk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hawk

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=all)

Price · $44.87 · 89.73 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $40.38 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 65.42% · 180 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 158 openings · below min

30 days · 180 openings · below min

since tracking started · 180 openings · below min

11.0% 70.8% 130.5%

**Small sample.** 180 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=7d) | 158 | 72.80% ±57.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk) | 180 | 65.42% ±53.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hawk?window=all) | 180 | 65.42% ±53.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,402 2,805 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $728 1,457 coins | 18.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $653 1,306 coins | 16.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $487 973 coins | 12.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $447 894 coins | 11.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 4.7% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $35.33 70.65 coins | 5.2% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 11.0% | $33.87 67.74 coins | 9.2% | 27 | 19.8 | 1.36× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 13.0% | $3.03 6.05 coins | 1.0% | 22 | 23.4 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.56 3.11 coins | 0.5% | 19 | 25.2 | 0.75× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.5% | 36 | 36.0 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 26.5% | $0.50 1 coins | 0.3% | 58 | 47.6 | 1.22× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $728 1,457 coins 16.23x 2026-11-10 05:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $728 1,457 coins 16.23x 2026-11-06 15:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $728 1,457 coins 16.23x 2026-11-05 07:00 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $653 1,306 coins 14.55x 2026-11-06 15:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hawk)

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $37.64 75.28 coins 0.84x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $35.33 70.65 coins 0.79x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $44.87 89.73 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $728 1,457 coins 16.23x 2026-11-10 05:47 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 05:47 UTC

[XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $33.87 67.74 coins 0.75x 2026-11-10 05:47 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $44.87 89.73 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 05:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $44.87 | 90.00% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.6% other 2.0% Restricted 11.0% restricted 13.0% #B0C3D9 14.0% mil spec 20.0% blue 26.5% best hit $728 (16.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt