---
title: "Hazard case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hazard ($27.39) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 162.04% over 30 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hazard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hazard

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=all)

Price · $27.39 · 54.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $24.65 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 162.04% · 30 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 22 openings · below min

30 days · 30 openings · below min

since tracking started · 30 openings · below min

-0.5% 122.0% 244.5%

**Small sample.** 30 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=7d) | 22 | 47.78% ±95.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard) | 30 | 162.04% ±81.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hazard?window=all) | 30 | 162.04% ±81.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $967 1,934 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $478 956 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $387 774 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $178 355 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $101 202 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $97.15 194 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $56.31 113 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $27.78 55.56 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $21.68 43.36 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 10.0% | $19.47 38.94 coins | 7.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 12.0% | $8.33 16.66 coins | 4.1% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 14.0% | $8.08 16.16 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) | 14.0% | $2.47 4.94 coins | 1.4% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.54 3.07 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.22 2.44 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $967 1,934 coins 35.31x 2026-11-03 11:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hazard)

[MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $8.08 16.16 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[M249 | Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $2.47 4.94 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $1.54 3.07 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $19.47 38.94 coins 0.71x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $27.39 54.78 coins $56.31 113 coins 2.06x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[FAMAS | Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $27.78 55.56 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $19.47 38.94 coins 0.71x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $1.22 2.44 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $27.39 54.78 coins $8.33 16.66 coins 0.30x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[M249 | Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $27.39 54.78 coins $2.47 4.94 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.39 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 1.1% restricted 8.4% Classified 1.5% mil spec 4.0% classified 45.0% covert 6.0% Ancient 10.0% consumer 14.0% #8847ff 10.0% best hit $967 (35.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt