--- title: "HeartBreaker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HeartBreaker ($96.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 61.90% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [HeartBreaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · HeartBreaker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=all) Price · $96.14 · 192 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $86.52 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.90% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 87.8% 176.0% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=7d) | 14 | 61.90% ±113.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker) | 14 | 61.90% ±113.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heartbreaker?window=all) | 14 | 61.90% ±113.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 17.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,385 2,771 coins | 16.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $397 794 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $322 644 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $84.04 168 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $72.32 145 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $68.29 137 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 15.0% | $61.31 123 coins | 10.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 10.0% | $37.48 74.96 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $34.03 68.06 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $32.01 64.02 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 33.0% | $28.89 57.77 coins | 11.0% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=heartbreaker) [Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 0.30x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 0.30x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $37.48 74.96 coins 0.39x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [foul](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foul) $96.14 192 coins $322 644 coins 3.35x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 0.30x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $61.31 123 coins 0.64x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $34.03 68.06 coins 0.35x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) [foul](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foul) $96.14 192 coins $37.48 74.96 coins 0.39x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 22:56 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.14 192 coins $34.03 68.06 coins 0.35x 2026-11-07 22:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.14 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% legendary 1.0% other 1.0% Immortal 5.0% mil spec 5.0% Covert 5.0% restricted 20.0% classified 43.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt