--- title: "Heatstroke case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heatstroke ($187.55) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 11.73% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Heatstroke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Heatstroke A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=all) Price · $187.55 · 375 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $168.79 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 11.73% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=7d) | 8 | 11.73% ±187.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke) | 8 | 11.73% ±187.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatstroke?window=all) | 8 | 11.73% ±187.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,545 5,091 coins | 15.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $2,468 4,935 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,880 3,759 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,429 2,858 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $667 1,334 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $322 644 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $166 331 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $80.02 160 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $43.58 87.15 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $20.66 41.32 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.42 20.83 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 68.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.10× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=heatstroke) [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $188 375 coins $10.42 20.83 coins 0.06x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $166 331 coins 0.88x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $188 375 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $188 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% Covert 1.0% classified 6.0% #EB4B4B 1.0% legendary 1.0% extraordinary 3.0% mil spec 4.0% #d32ee6 5.0% pink 5.0% #4b69ff 68.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt