--- title: "Heatwave case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heatwave ($78.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave rendered: 2026-11-11T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Heatwave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Heatwave A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=all) Price · $78.63 · 157 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $70.76 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heatwave?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $509 1,019 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $310 620 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $271 541 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $193 386 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $137 275 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $131 262 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $93.07 186 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $82.68 165 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $79.59 159 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $65.42 131 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $61.31 123 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $52.68 105 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $52.23 104 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $51.73 103 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 10.0% | $51.39 103 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 30.1% | $24.31 48.62 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=heatwave) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.63 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% sunny 0.5% extraordinary 13.1% Immortal 5.0% mil spec 5.0% industrial 5.0% Classified 12.0% Restricted 7.0% classified 42.4% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt