--- title: "Heavy Duty case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heavy Duty ($54.68) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 90.18% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Heavy Duty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Heavy Duty A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=all) Price · $54.68 · 109 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $49.21 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.18% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=7d) | 8 | 35.99% ±162.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty) | 38 | 90.18% ±74.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/heavy-duty?window=all) | 38 | 90.18% ±74.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,333 | $2,401 4,803 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $750 1,501 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $482 964 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $325 650 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $250 500 coins | 10.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $200 401 coins | 12.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $185 371 coins | 12.2% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.43× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $164 328 coins | 11.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $150 300 coins | 15.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $125 250 coins | 12.7% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) | 38.0% | $1.10 2.19 coins | 0.8% | 9 | 14.4 | 0.62× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 38.3% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.8% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=heavy-duty) [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 109 coins $150 300 coins 2.75x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.68 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.2% Extraordinary 0.1% gold 5.3% other 0.5% restricted 39.3% Covert 3.0% classified 3.3% covert knife 8.5% violet 38.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt