--- title: "HELP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "HELP ($0.27) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.49% from 12 items with odds, observed 162.02% over 10.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [HELP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · HELP A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=all) Price · $0.27 · 0.54 coins Advertised RTP · 88.49% · EV $0.24 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 162.02% · 10.8K openings, odds method Variance · 2160.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 7,143 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5,887 openings · below min 7 days · 10,326 openings · below min 30 days · 10,840 openings · below min since tracking started · 10,840 openings · below min 74.0% 218.5% 363.0% **Small sample.** 10,840 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=24h) | 5,887 | 243.59% ±118.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=7d) | 10.3K | 168.79% ±89.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help) | 10.8K | 162.02% ±87.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/help?window=all) | 10.8K | 162.02% ±87.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,750 3,500 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,628 3,257 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,317 2,634 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $618 1,236 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 20,000 | $606 1,211 coins | 12.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 20,000 | $530 1,060 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $516 1,031 coins | 10.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.13 2.26 coins | 11.8% | 289 | 271.2 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 10.9% | 282 | 271.2 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 3.3% | 4,377 | 4339.2 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 55.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 5,895 | 5963.8 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $1,750 3,500 coins 6,482x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $618 1,236 coins 2,289x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Charm | Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $606 1,211 coins 2,243x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $516 1,031 coins 1,910x 2026-11-10 18:26 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $516 1,031 coins 1,910x 2026-11-05 23:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=help) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.27 0.54 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.27 0.54 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.27 | 88.49% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Immortal 0.0% industrial 2.5% blue 2.5% Common 40.0% consumer 55.0% best hit $1,750 (6,482x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.49 on average: an expected loss of $11.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt