--- title: "Hercules case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hercules ($1,987.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.62% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hercules](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hercules A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=all) Price · $1,987.43 · 3,975 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,788.68 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.62% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 14.5% 67.3% 120.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=24h) | 4 | 66.23% ±51.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=7d) | 16 | 93.62% ±25.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules) | 16 | 93.62% ±25.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hercules?window=all) | 16 | 93.62% ±25.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 80 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 9.4% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2,730 5,460 coins | 12.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 12.0% | $2,528 5,057 coins | 17.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) | 15.0% | $2,401 4,803 coins | 20.1% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 15.0% | $1,973 3,946 coins | 16.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 10.0% | $1,250 2,500 coins | 7.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $723 1,447 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 20.0% | $250 500 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 2.90x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 1.40x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,730 5,460 coins 1.37x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,730 5,460 coins 1.37x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) [BlankTorch7918](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BlankTorch7918) $1,987 3,975 coins $2,401 4,803 coins 1.21x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,401 4,803 coins 1.21x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $1,973 3,946 coins 0.99x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $1,973 3,946 coins 0.99x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) [divaxxdiva](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/divaxxdiva) $1,987 3,975 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 0.63x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hercules) [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $250 500 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $1,973 3,946 coins 0.99x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 1.40x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $1,987 3,975 coins $250 500 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $723 1,447 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 2.90x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $250 500 coins 0.13x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) [BlankTorch7918](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BlankTorch7918) $1,987 3,975 coins $2,401 4,803 coins 1.21x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 0.63x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $1,987 3,975 coins $250 500 coins 0.13x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,987 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 22.7% extraordinary 10.8% legendary 11.5% Extraordinary 27.0% Knives 8.0% industrial 20.0% best hit $5,754 (2.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt