---
title: "Hit a Lick case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hit a Lick ($27.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 88.78% over 571 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hit a Lick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hit a Lick

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=all)

Price · $27.64 · 55.27 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $24.87 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.78% · 571 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 56 openings · below min

7 days · 82.99% ±40.53 307 openings

30 days · 88.78% ±29.72 571 openings

since tracking started · 88.78% ±29.72 571 openings

5.0% 100.5% 196.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=24h) | 56 | 100.54% ±94.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=7d) | 307 | 82.99% ±40.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick) | 571 | 88.78% ±29.7 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick?window=all) | 571 | 88.78% ±29.7 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 571 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| somebody (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,480 8,960 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,137 8,274 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,498 6,995 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| keev (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keev-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,948 5,895 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $500 1,000 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $150 300 coins | 6.0% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $148 295 coins | 5.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $146 292 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $143 287 coins | 5.8% | 11 | 5.7 | 1.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $141 281 coins | 5.6% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $140 280 coins | 5.6% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $135 270 coins | 5.4% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $132 264 coins | 5.3% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $129 258 coins | 5.2% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $125 251 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 10.0% | $29.36 58.71 coins | 11.8% | 50 | 57.1 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.67 53.34 coins | 10.7% | 55 | 57.1 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 10.1% | 55 | 57.1 | 0.96× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 19.9% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 127 | 113.9 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 19.9% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 112 | 113.9 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 108 | 113.9 | 0.95× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $500 1,000 coins 18.10x 2026-11-04 17:03 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $500 1,000 coins 18.10x 2026-11-03 16:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hit-a-lick)

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $135 270 coins 4.89x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [Greg](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Greg) $27.64 55.27 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC

[Souvenir Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) Hidden $27.64 55.27 coins $140 280 coins 5.07x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.64 | 90.00% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% high 0.0% other 0.1% Extraordinary 0.0% gold 1.0% covert 2.0% covert knife 4.0% classified 21.0% Immortal 1.0% #ffd700 1.0% Rare 10.0% consumer 19.9% industrial 19.9% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit $500 (18.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt