--- title: "Hold Site case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hold Site ($101.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 66.38% over 1,328 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site rendered: 2026-11-11T17:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hold Site](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hold Site A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=all) Price · $101.82 · 204 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $91.63 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.38% · 1,328 openings, odds method Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 34 openings · below min 7 days · 77.78% ±31.95 484 openings 30 days · 66.38% ±19.29 1,328 openings since tracking started · 66.38% ±19.29 1,328 openings 14.5% 135.8% 257.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (47.09% – 85.67%, 1,328 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=24h) | 34 | 135.78% ±120.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=7d) | 484 | 77.78% ±32.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site) | 1,328 | 66.38% ±19.3 | −2.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hold-site?window=all) | 1,328 | 66.38% ±19.3 | −2.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,328 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 39.5% | 5 | 13.3 | 0.38× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $450 900 coins | 14.7% | 34 | 39.8 | 0.85× | | [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 33 | $226 451 coins | 7.4% | 40 | 39.8 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 15.0% | $121 241 coins | 19.7% | 207 | 199.2 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 20.0% | $75.06 150 coins | 16.4% | 261 | 265.6 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 25.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 1.4% | 326 | 332.0 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 33.0% | $2.53 5.06 coins | 0.9% | 455 | 438.2 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $102 204 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 35.52x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 35.52x 2026-11-06 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $102 204 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 35.52x 2026-11-06 13:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 35.52x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 35.52x 2026-11-04 00:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hold-site) [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) Hidden $102 204 coins $121 241 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $102 204 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) Hidden $102 204 coins $121 241 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $102 204 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) Hidden $102 204 coins $75.06 150 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% Legendary 18.0% Restricted 20.0% classified 25.0% mil spec 33.0% best hit $3,617 (35.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt