--- title: "Hops & Robbers case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hops & Robbers ($9.55) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 92.71% over 1,343 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers rendered: 2026-11-11T18:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hops & Robbers](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hops & Robbers A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=all) Price · $9.55 · 19.1 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.59 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.71% · 1,343 openings, odds method Variance · 37.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 51 openings · below min 7 days · 87.86% ±37.40 1,031 openings 30 days · 92.71% ±32.77 1,343 openings since tracking started · 92.71% ±32.77 1,343 openings -0.5% 162.8% 326.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=24h) | 51 | 157.01% ±168.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=7d) | 1,031 | 87.86% ±37.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers) | 1,343 | 92.71% ±32.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hops-robbers?window=all) | 1,343 | 92.71% ±32.8 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,343 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $601 1,202 coins | 35.0% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $572 1,143 coins | 33.3% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.19× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 9.1% | 21 | 26.9 | 0.78× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $22.31 44.61 coins | 5.2% | 27 | 26.9 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $18.09 36.17 coins | 6.3% | 45 | 40.3 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.64 23.28 coins | 5.4% | 70 | 53.7 | 1.30× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.19 12.37 coins | 3.6% | 71 | 67.2 | 1.06× | | [Dual Berettas \| Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.02 6.04 coins | 2.1% | 71 | 80.6 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 77.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,024 | 1034.1 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-11 05:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-07 11:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-07 09:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-07 04:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-03 17:51 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $601 1,202 coins 62.93x 2026-11-03 00:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $572 1,143 coins 59.85x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $572 1,143 coins 59.85x 2026-11-06 22:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $572 1,143 coins 59.85x 2026-11-06 05:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $572 1,143 coins 59.85x 2026-11-06 00:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hops-robbers) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Dual Berettas | Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins $3.02 6.04 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $9.55 19.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.55 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% covert knife 0.5% restricted 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% mil spec 4.0% pink 5.0% consumer 83.0% best hit $601 (62.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt