--- title: "Hostage case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hostage ($5.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.10% over 6,243 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hostage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hostage A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 10 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.50 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.10% · 6,243 openings, odds method Variance · 24.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.13% ±39.02 606 openings 7 days · 91.53% ±13.96 4,733 openings 30 days · 92.10% ±12.16 6,243 openings since tracking started · 92.10% ±12.16 6,243 openings 34.5% 74.3% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=24h) | 606 | 74.13% ±39.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=7d) | 4,733 | 91.53% ±14.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage) | 6,243 | 92.10% ±12.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hostage?window=all) | 6,243 | 92.10% ±12.2 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,261 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $252 504 coins | 33.6% | 44 | 37.6 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $153 307 coins | 30.7% | 53 | 56.3 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.58 101 coins | 11.2% | 57 | 62.6 | 0.91× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.60 15.19 coins | 5.1% | 177 | 187.8 | 0.94× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.57 3.13 coins | 3.5% | 606 | 626.1 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 3.4% | 627 | 626.1 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 36.5% | $0.96 1.93 coins | 7.8% | 2,358 | 2285.3 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 38.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 4.7% | 2,339 | 2379.2 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-11 00:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) [Niksifan123](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Niksifan123) $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-10 09:58 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-09 23:56 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) [johnhimhim](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/johnhimhim) $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $252 504 coins 50.39x 2026-11-09 07:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hostage) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.96 1.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.96 1.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $5.00 10 coins $0.96 1.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $0.96 1.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 10 coins $50.58 101 coins 10.12x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.6% covert 11.9% #eb4b4b 3.0% violet 10.0% milspec 36.5% Rare 38.0% best hit $252 (50.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt