--- title: "Hot Drop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hot Drop ($46.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 60.69% over 156 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hot Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hot Drop A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=all) Price · $46.14 · 92.27 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $41.52 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.69% · 156 openings, odds method Variance · 12.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 41 openings · below min 7 days · 116 openings · below min 30 days · 156 openings · below min since tracking started · 156 openings · below min -0.5% 100.8% 202.0% **Small sample.** 156 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=24h) | 41 | 92.51% ±108.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=7d) | 116 | 73.34% ±64.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop) | 156 | 60.69% ±55.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-drop?window=all) | 156 | 60.69% ±55.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 30.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $914 1,828 coins | 22.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $578 1,155 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $102 205 coins | 14.8% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 10.0% | $25.41 50.82 coins | 6.1% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.21 30.42 coins | 5.5% | 28 | 23.4 | 1.20× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.58 19.15 coins | 4.6% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.03× | | [MAG-7 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) | 22.0% | $3.53 7.05 coins | 1.9% | 31 | 34.3 | 0.90× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 24.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.6% | 39 | 37.4 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $1,271 2,542 coins 27.55x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $914 1,828 coins 19.81x 2026-11-07 18:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hot-drop) [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $3.53 7.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $1,271 2,542 coins 27.55x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $9.58 19.15 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) [AYA32](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/AYA32) $46.14 92.27 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $3.53 7.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $9.58 19.15 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-factory-new) [AYA32](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/AYA32) $46.14 92.27 coins $3.53 7.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $25.41 50.82 coins 0.55x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $46.14 92.27 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.14 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% extraordinary 7.0% restricted 34.0% classified 35.0% Consumer Grade 22.0% best hit $1,271 (27.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt