---
title: "Hot Rod case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hot Rod ($0.36) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.18% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.56% over 4,957 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hot Rod](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hot Rod

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=all)

Price · $0.36 · 0.71 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.18% · EV $0.32 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.56% · 4,957 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 48.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 52.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.90% ±21.95 379 openings

7 days · 87.16% ±6.34 4,549 openings

30 days · 86.56% ±6.07 4,957 openings

since tracking started · 86.56% ±6.07 4,957 openings

65.5% 88.0% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=24h) | 379 | 87.90% ±21.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=7d) | 4,549 | 87.16% ±6.34 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod) | 4,957 | 86.56% ±6.07 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hot-rod?window=all) | 4,957 | 86.56% ±6.07 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,965 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $61.04 122 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $54.12 108 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $42.09 84.17 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $32.01 64.02 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.15 4.29 coins | 6.8% | 51 | 49.6 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.43 2.86 coins | 4.5% | 50 | 49.6 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.32 2.64 coins | 4.2% | 48 | 49.6 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.2% | 37 | 49.6 | 0.75× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.81 1.63 coins | 2.6% | 39 | 49.6 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.76 1.51 coins | 2.4% | 71 | 49.6 | 1.43× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 42.0% | $0.54 1.07 coins | 70.9% | 2,099 | 2084.3 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.8% | 490 | 516.4 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.7% | 500 | 516.4 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.5% | 501 | 516.4 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.3% | 518 | 516.4 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 10.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 561 | 516.4 | 1.09× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hot-rod)

[AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 1.51x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 0.71 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 1.51x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.35 | 89.18% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 45.0% restricted 0.0% milspec 11.4% #777777 1.0% Consumer Grade 1.0% industrial 10.4% Mil Spec Grade 10.4% consumer 20.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.18 on average: an expected loss of $10.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt