---
title: "Howl Lot of M4A1s case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Howl Lot of M4A1s ($153.54) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 98.28% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s
rendered: 2026-11-13T06:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Howl Lot of M4A1s](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Howl Lot of M4A1s

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=all)

Price · $153.54 · 307 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $138.18 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.28% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

7.0% 90.8% 174.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=24h) | 8 | 90.77% ±83.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=7d) | 8 | 90.77% ±83.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s) | 16 | 98.28% ±58.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/howl-lot-of-m4a1s?window=all) | 16 | 98.28% ±58.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,955 5,910 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,381 2,761 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $774 1,548 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $635 1,269 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 30.0% | $308 616 coins | 66.9% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $215 431 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $169 339 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $161 323 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $102 203 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $69.34 139 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $62.94 126 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $60.91 122 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.15 30.29 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $11.32 22.63 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.63 17.26 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.29 16.58 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.01 8.01 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.68 5.35 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.79 3.58 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.66 1.32 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.36 0.73 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.27 0.54 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=howl-lot-of-m4a1s)

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) Hidden $154 307 coins $169 339 coins 1.10x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $154 307 coins $308 616 coins 2.01x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $154 307 coins $308 616 coins 2.01x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) Hidden $154 307 coins $0.27 0.54 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $154 307 coins $8.63 17.26 coins 0.06x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) Hidden $154 307 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $154 307 coins $308 616 coins 2.01x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) [bouyks](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/bouyks) $154 307 coins $11.32 22.63 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 12:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $154 | 90.00% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% Classified 0.1% #EB4B4B 1.0% Covert 1.0% covert 45.0% classified 12.0% industrial 6.0% #D32CE6 3.0% restricted 9.0% mil spec 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% Mythical 3.0% #8847ff 13.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt