--- title: "Hqteful case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hqteful ($90.29) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.70% over 1,220 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hqteful](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hqteful A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=all) Price · $90.29 · 181 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $81.26 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.70% · 1,220 openings, odds method Variance · 17.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91.71% ±38.50 444 openings 30 days · 89.70% ±23.23 1,220 openings since tracking started · 89.70% ±23.23 1,220 openings 52.5% 91.8% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=7d) | 444 | 91.71% ±38.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful) | 1,220 | 89.70% ±23.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hqteful?window=all) | 1,220 | 89.70% ±23.2 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,220 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4,916 9,833 coins | 30.3% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 8.3% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $721 1,442 coins | 8.9% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $579 1,159 coins | 7.1% | 4 | 12.2 | 0.33× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $366 732 coins | 22.5% | 53 | 61.0 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $98.74 197 coins | 2.4% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.07× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $88.20 176 coins | 5.4% | 69 | 61.0 | 1.13× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $63.73 127 coins | 3.9% | 59 | 61.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $41.51 83.01 coins | 2.6% | 66 | 61.0 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $35.95 71.89 coins | 4.4% | 112 | 122.0 | 0.92× | | [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $18.92 37.84 coins | 2.3% | 116 | 122.0 | 0.95× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 10.0% | $6.58 13.16 coins | 0.8% | 110 | 122.0 | 0.90× | | [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.19 6.38 coins | 0.2% | 67 | 61.0 | 1.10× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 0.6% | 253 | 244.0 | 1.04× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.22 2.44 coins | 0.2% | 138 | 122.0 | 1.13× | | [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.06 0.12 coins | 0.0% | 124 | 122.0 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-07 11:07 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-06 15:07 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-04 01:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-04 00:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-04 00:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-04 00:38 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 54.45x 2026-11-04 00:27 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 14.96x 2026-11-06 13:42 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 14.96x 2026-11-04 22:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hqteful) [★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $88.20 176 coins 0.98x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [Negev | Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $18.92 37.84 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $0.06 0.12 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $88.20 176 coins 0.98x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC [M249 | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $90.29 181 coins $3.19 6.38 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $90.29 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.0% epic 1.0% rare 5.0% classified 22.0% gold 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% industrial 10.0% mil spec 10.0% gray 5.0% #8847ff 10.0% consumer 10.0% best hit $4,916 (54.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt