--- title: "Hunted case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hunted ($2.49) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.73% over 12.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted rendered: 2026-11-11T15:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hunted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hunted A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=all) Price · $2.49 · 4.98 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $2.24 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.73% · 12.9K openings, odds method Variance · 113.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 132.31% ±46.07 2,058 openings 7 days · 105.03% ±20.48 10.4K openings 30 days · 96.73% ±18.42 12.9K openings since tracking started · 96.73% ±18.42 12.9K openings 77.5% 128.3% 179.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=24h) | 2,058 | 132.31% ±46.1 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=7d) | 10.4K | 105.03% ±20.5 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted) | 12.9K | 96.73% ±18.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted?window=all) | 12.9K | 96.73% ±18.4 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $418 836 coins | 74.6% | 56 | 51.6 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 19.1% | 217 | 206.4 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.68 1.35 coins | 2.3% | 1,014 | 967.3 | 1.05× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.60 1.2 coins | 2.0% | 930 | 967.3 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.9% | 984 | 967.3 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.27 0.53 coins | 0.9% | 974 | 967.3 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) | 34.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 4,410 | 4385.3 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 34.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 4,313 | 4385.3 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-11 04:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-11 04:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) [Cupcake](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Cupcake) $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-10 23:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) [nutinaguti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nutinaguti) $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-10 23:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-10 21:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-10 21:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $418 836 coins 167.8x 2026-11-10 21:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hunted) [UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.27 0.53 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 10.71x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $2.49 4.98 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [conR](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/conR) $2.49 4.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.49 | 89.94% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% classified 1.6% Mythical 15.0% mil spec 7.5% violet 7.5% milspec 34.0% #4b69ff 34.0% best hit $418 (167.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt