--- title: "Hype case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hype ($517.95) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 219.86% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hype](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hype A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=all) Price · $517.95 · 1,036 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $466.15 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 219.86% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min 89.5% 211.2% 333.0% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=7d) | 14 | 219.86% ±112.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype) | 14 | 219.86% ±112.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hype?window=all) | 14 | 219.86% ±112.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 10.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 143 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 10.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $2,993 5,986 coins | 12.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 40 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 40 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $1,011 2,022 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $834 1,669 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $797 1,594 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $571 1,141 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $428 855 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $323 645 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $157 314 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $151 302 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 53.8% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 5.7% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 17.99x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 9.19x 2026-11-07 12:46 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $518 1,036 coins $797 1,594 coins 1.54x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $571 1,141 coins 1.10x 2026-11-07 12:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hype) [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 17.99x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $518 1,036 coins $797 1,594 coins 1.54x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-07 12:46 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $518 1,036 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-07 12:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $518 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.2% contraband 1.0% extraordinary 2.5% #EB4B4B 2.5% #4B69FF 3.0% gold 11.0% sunny 5.0% other 53.8% best hit $9,318 (17.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt