--- title: "Impact case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Impact ($3.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.92% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.53% over 696 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Impact](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Impact A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=all) Price · $3.06 · 6.11 coins Advertised RTP · 89.92% · EV $2.75 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.53% · 696 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.77% ±34.03 132 openings 7 days · 78.39% ±19.95 384 openings 30 days · 85.53% ±14.82 696 openings since tracking started · 85.53% ±14.82 696 openings 52.0% 86.8% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=24h) | 132 | 86.77% ±34.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=7d) | 384 | 78.39% ±20.0 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact) | 696 | 85.53% ±14.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/impact?window=all) | 696 | 85.53% ±14.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 696 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $54.32 109 coins | 19.8% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.11 24.21 coins | 26.4% | 38 | 41.8 | 0.91× | | [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 17.6% | 48 | 41.8 | 1.15× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.23 10.45 coins | 11.4% | 40 | 41.8 | 0.96× | | [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.89 5.77 coins | 6.3% | 50 | 41.8 | 1.20× | | [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.86 1.72 coins | 7.8% | 164 | 174.0 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.65 1.3 coins | 5.9% | 180 | 174.0 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.52 1.04 coins | 4.7% | 171 | 174.0 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=impact) [P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.86 1.72 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.65 1.3 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.86 1.72 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-factory-new) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.06 6.11 coins $0.65 1.3 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.86 1.72 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.06 6.11 coins $0.86 1.72 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $5.23 10.45 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) Hidden $3.06 6.11 coins $5.23 10.45 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.06 | 89.92% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 1.0% consumer 12.0% Common 6.0% classified 6.0% pink 25.0% #4b69ff 25.0% blue 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.92 on average: an expected loss of $10.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt