--- title: "Inferno case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Inferno ($9.80) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.51% over 1,472 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno rendered: 2026-11-11T22:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Inferno](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Inferno A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=all) Price · $9.80 · 19.59 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $8.81 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.51% · 1,472 openings, odds method Variance · 23.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 187 openings · below min 7 days · 77.32% ±27.24 1,224 openings 30 days · 87.51% ±24.84 1,472 openings since tracking started · 87.51% ±24.84 1,472 openings 7.0% 77.3% 147.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=24h) | 187 | 77.41% ±69.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=7d) | 1,224 | 77.32% ±27.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno) | 1,472 | 87.51% ±24.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/inferno?window=all) | 1,472 | 87.51% ±24.8 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,472 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $360 720 coins | 20.4% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $334 668 coins | 18.9% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $301 603 coins | 17.1% | 2 | 7.4 | 0.27× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $290 579 coins | 16.4% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $256 512 coins | 7.3% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $125 251 coins | 3.6% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $116 231 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $75.78 152 coins | 2.2% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $51.43 103 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $13.79 27.57 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $3.21 6.41 coins | 0.3% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.60 1.2 coins | 6.5% | 1,399 | 1398.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=inferno) [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $13.79 27.57 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $360 720 coins 36.76x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $9.80 19.59 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.80 | 89.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% classified 1.3% mil spec 95.5% restricted 0.3% other 0.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt