--- title: "Iron Front case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Iron Front ($5.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 14 items with odds, observed 97.74% over 590 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Iron Front](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Iron Front A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=all) Price · $5.08 · 10.16 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $4.57 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.74% · 590 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 103.36% ±18.12 514 openings 30 days · 97.74% ±16.91 590 openings since tracking started · 97.74% ±16.91 590 openings -0.5% 100.3% 201.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=24h) | 16 | 97.55% ±102.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=7d) | 514 | 103.36% ±18.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front) | 590 | 97.74% ±16.9 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/iron-front?window=all) | 590 | 97.74% ±16.9 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 590 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $52.51 105 coins | 11.5% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.61 101 coins | 11.1% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 9.9% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 40 | $31.00 62 coins | 17.0% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $29.07 58.14 coins | 15.9% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $18.84 37.68 coins | 12.4% | 21 | 17.7 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 8.4% | 30 | 29.5 | 1.02× | | [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 13 | $4.38 8.76 coins | 7.7% | 47 | 47.2 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.52 3.03 coins | 2.7% | 42 | 47.2 | 0.89× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.12 2.23 coins | 2.0% | 41 | 47.2 | 0.87× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 13 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.9% | 42 | 47.2 | 0.89× | | [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.28 0.56 coins | 0.5% | 43 | 47.2 | 0.91× | | [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.1% | 59 | 59.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 34.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 215 | 200.6 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=iron-front) [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.28 0.56 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.28 0.56 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $1.12 2.23 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [FAMAS | Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $18.84 37.68 coins 3.71x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [FAMAS | Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $18.84 37.68 coins 3.71x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [FAMAS | Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $5.08 10.16 coins $18.84 37.68 coins 3.71x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:06 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) Hidden $5.08 10.16 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.08 | 89.94% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 1.0% other 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% uncommon 2.5% industrial 2.5% classified 3.0% restricted 13.0% #8847ff 8.0% #777777 8.0% #4b69ff 8.0% mil spec 42.0% consumer 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt