--- title: "Ironbox case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ironbox ($0.36) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.00% over 8,182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ironbox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ironbox A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=all) Price · $0.36 · 0.72 coins Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $0.32 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.00% · 8,182 openings, odds method Variance · 20.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.64% ±24.15 1,323 openings 7 days · 91.86% ±10.44 7,078 openings 30 days · 91.00% ±9.71 8,182 openings since tracking started · 91.00% ±9.71 8,182 openings 76.0% 100.7% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=24h) | 1,323 | 100.64% ±24.1 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=7d) | 7,078 | 91.86% ±10.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox) | 8,182 | 91.00% ±9.71 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ironbox?window=all) | 8,182 | 91.00% ±9.71 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,186 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.91 29.81 coins | 46.1% | 79 | 81.9 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.96 9.91 coins | 15.3% | 88 | 81.9 | 1.08× | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4.79 9.57 coins | 14.8% | 92 | 81.9 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.78 1.55 coins | 2.4% | 80 | 81.9 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.9% | 76 | 81.9 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.07 0.14 coins | 20.6% | 7,771 | 7776.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ironbox) [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) [sperma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/sperma) $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.72 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.36 | 89.85% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% #d32ee6 1.0% restricted 1.0% Rare 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt