--- title: "Italy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Italy ($2.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 10 items with odds, observed 87.44% over 99K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Italy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Italy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=all) Price · $2.47 · 4.93 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $2.22 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.44% · 99K openings, odds method Variance · 158.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.74% ±15.20 26.4K openings 7 days · 88.35% ±8.28 89K openings 30 days · 87.44% ±7.85 99K openings since tracking started · 87.44% ±7.85 99K openings 79.0% 97.8% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=24h) | 26.4K | 100.74% ±15.2 | +1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=7d) | 89K | 88.35% ±8.28 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy) | 99K | 87.44% ±7.85 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/italy?window=all) | 99K | 87.44% ±7.85 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 99K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 5.7% | 5 | 9.9 | 0.51× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 9.0% | 18 | 19.8 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $639 1,278 coins | 11.5% | 43 | 39.6 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $438 876 coins | 9.9% | 45 | 49.5 | 0.91× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $367 733 coins | 13.2% | 94 | 79.2 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $361 722 coins | 16.3% | 85 | 99.0 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $261 522 coins | 11.8% | 99 | 99.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $112 224 coins | 10.1% | 192 | 198.0 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $67.97 136 coins | 12.3% | 424 | 395.9 | 1.07× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 99.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 97,982 | 97997.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-09 02:21 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-08 22:30 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-05 04:04 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 513.8x 2026-11-05 04:04 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 406.6x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $2.47 4.93 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 406.6x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 406.6x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $2.47 4.93 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 406.6x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=italy) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [TEAMVALTERI](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TEAMVALTERI) $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $2.47 4.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.47 | 89.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% classified 0.3% other 0.1% restricted 0.1% industrial 99.0% best hit $1,266 (513.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt