--- title: "Jackpot Case case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jackpot Case ($21.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 74.91% over 128 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case rendered: 2026-11-11T16:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Jackpot Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Jackpot Case A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=all) Price · $21.19 · 42.38 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.07 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.91% · 128 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 74.91% ±31.39 128 openings since tracking started · 74.91% ±31.39 128 openings 38.5% 75.5% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=7d) | 96 | 75.56% ±36.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case) | 128 | 74.91% ±31.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-case?window=all) | 128 | 74.91% ±31.4 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 128 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $171 341 coins | 17.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $162 323 coins | 17.0% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $152 304 coins | 15.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 17 | $40.70 81.4 coins | 12.8% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $39.30 78.6 coins | 12.4% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 10.6% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.43× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.33 16.66 coins | 4.4% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 66.0% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 9.1% | 83 | 84.5 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=jackpot-case) [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $39.30 78.6 coins 1.85x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $33.56 67.12 coins 1.58x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $21.19 42.38 coins $8.33 16.66 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $8.33 16.66 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $152 304 coins 7.17x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $21.19 42.38 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.19 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% covert knife 2.0% Ancient 6.0% classified 82.0% extraordinary 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt