--- title: "Jackpot Farm case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jackpot Farm ($69.10) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 142.04% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Jackpot Farm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Jackpot Farm A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=all) Price · $69.10 · 138 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $62.19 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 142.04% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min 6.0% 107.0% 208.0% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=7d) | 56 | 78.41% ±71.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm) | 68 | 142.04% ±65.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot-farm?window=all) | 68 | 142.04% ±65.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,335 14,669 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,803 11,607 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 80 | $747 1,494 coins | 15.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $657 1,315 coins | 13.2% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $572 1,143 coins | 11.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $501 1,002 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $438 876 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 80 | $384 767 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $316 632 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $261 522 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $254 508 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) | 29.6% | $10.87 21.74 coins | 5.2% | 18 | 20.1 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 29.6% | $8.97 17.94 coins | 4.3% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.94× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 29.6% | $8.35 16.7 coins | 4.0% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $747 1,494 coins 10.81x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $657 1,315 coins 9.51x 2026-11-04 17:15 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $657 1,315 coins 9.51x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $657 1,315 coins 9.51x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $572 1,143 coins 8.27x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $572 1,143 coins 8.27x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $69.10 138 coins $572 1,143 coins 8.27x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=jackpot-farm) [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $8.97 17.94 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $69.10 138 coins $8.35 16.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.16x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $8.35 16.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $69.10 138 coins $8.97 17.94 coins 0.13x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) [caze](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/caze) $69.10 138 coins $8.35 16.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $69.10 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.3% covert knife 2.5% Covert 1.3% restricted 1.3% mil spec 29.6% industrial 29.6% classified 29.6% best hit $747 (10.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt