--- title: "Jackpot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jackpot ($6,208.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Jackpot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Jackpot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=all) Price · $6,208.17 · 12,416 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5,587.35 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jackpot?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $112K 223,312 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9,847 19,695 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6,389 12,778 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3,414 6,828 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1,784 3,567 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1,598 3,196 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 11.5% | $234 467 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=jackpot) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6,208 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% legendary 5.0% remarkable 2.0% extraordinary 35.0% contraband 3.0% classified 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt