--- title: "Joker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Joker ($89.46) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.09% over 821 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Joker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Joker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=all) Price · $89.46 · 179 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $80.51 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.09% · 821 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 61 openings · below min 30 days · 89.09% ±19.59 821 openings since tracking started · 89.09% ±19.59 821 openings 18.0% 90.5% 163.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=7d) | 61 | 90.44% ±71.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker) | 821 | 89.09% ±19.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/joker?window=all) | 821 | 89.09% ±19.6 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 821 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $1,201 2,403 coins | 14.9% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,112 2,225 coins | 13.8% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 13.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,062 2,124 coins | 13.2% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $755 1,509 coins | 18.7% | 20 | 16.4 | 1.22× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $520 1,041 coins | 12.9% | 11 | 16.4 | 0.67× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $518 1,037 coins | 12.9% | 21 | 16.4 | 1.28× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 90.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 739 | 738.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 04:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 04:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 04:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 04:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 03:57 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 03:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 01:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 01:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 13.43x 2026-11-04 01:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $89.46 179 coins $1,112 2,225 coins 12.43x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=joker) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $89.46 179 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $89.46 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% gold 1.0% Covert 2.0% other 2.0% #4b69ff 90.0% best hit $1,201 (13.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt