--- title: "Jonkenn 5% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jonkenn 5% ($73.49) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 76.34% over 3,903 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Jonkenn 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Jonkenn 5% A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=all) Price · $73.49 · 147 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $66.14 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.34% · 3,903 openings, odds method Variance · 142.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 313 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 788 openings · below min 7 days · 80.06% ±41.39 3,205 openings 30 days · 76.34% ±37.51 3,903 openings since tracking started · 76.34% ±37.51 3,903 openings 13.0% 97.2% 181.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=24h) | 788 | 97.34% ±83.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=7d) | 3,205 | 80.06% ±41.4 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5) | 3,903 | 76.34% ±37.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/jonkenn-5?window=all) | 3,903 | 76.34% ±37.5 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,903 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 16.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 28.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 15.6% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| somebody (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,250 | $4,480 8,960 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $696 1,391 coins | 21.0% | 63 | 78.1 | 0.81× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $266 531 coins | 8.0% | 96 | 78.1 | 1.23× | | [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,724 | 3727.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $26.7K 53,347 coins 363.0x 2026-11-05 11:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 254.4x 2026-11-11 10:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 254.4x 2026-11-09 23:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 254.4x 2026-11-06 16:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $12.1K 24,151 coins 164.3x 2026-11-04 20:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $6,892 13,784 coins 93.79x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $6,892 13,784 coins 93.79x 2026-11-11 11:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $6,892 13,784 coins 93.79x 2026-11-10 12:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $6,892 13,784 coins 93.79x 2026-11-06 15:32 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $6,892 13,784 coins 93.79x 2026-11-03 12:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=jonkenn-5) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $73.49 147 coins $266 531 coins 3.61x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $73.49 147 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.49 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 0.1% covert 2.2% extraordinary 2.2% #4b69ff 95.5% best hit $26.7K (363.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt