--- title: "Junk Yard case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Junk Yard ($3.69) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 94.01% over 288 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Junk Yard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Junk Yard A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=all) Price · $3.69 · 7.38 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.32 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.01% · 288 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 95.22% ±30.78 189 openings 30 days · 94.01% ±24.94 288 openings since tracking started · 94.01% ±24.94 288 openings -0.5% 98.3% 197.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=24h) | 8 | 46.71% ±149.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=7d) | 189 | 95.22% ±30.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard) | 288 | 94.01% ±24.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/junk-yard?window=all) | 288 | 94.01% ±24.9 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 288 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $79.54 159 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $68.12 136 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $57.63 115 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $52.80 106 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $44.27 88.53 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $39.19 78.38 coins | 8.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $28.89 57.77 coins | 10.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $22.29 44.58 coins | 10.1% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $17.14 34.28 coins | 12.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $13.44 26.87 coins | 10.1% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.91 17.81 coins | 8.0% | 16 | 8.6 | 1.85× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 6.6% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.61 7.22 coins | 6.5% | 14 | 17.3 | 0.81× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 5.4% | 24 | 20.2 | 1.19× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.59 3.18 coins | 4.8% | 38 | 28.8 | 1.32× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 60.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 158 | 174.2 | 0.91× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=junk-yard) [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.49x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.69x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.69x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $3.69 7.38 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.49x 2026-11-10 13:58 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.69 7.38 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.69 | 89.95% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 0.1% restricted 6.3% classified 5.4% Legendary 10.5% covert 8.8% #4b69ff 62.0% consumer 7.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt