--- title: "Karambit Brute case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Karambit Brute ($51.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 63.96% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute rendered: 2026-11-11T14:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Karambit Brute](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Karambit Brute A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=all) Price · $51.77 · 104 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $46.59 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.96% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min 8.0% 64.0% 120.0% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=7d) | 22 | 63.96% ±55.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute) | 22 | 63.96% ±55.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-brute?window=all) | 22 | 63.96% ±55.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $501 1,002 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 500 | $501 1,001 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $500 1,000 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $125 251 coins | 26.9% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 10.0% | $125 250 coins | 26.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 40.0% | $40.64 81.28 coins | 34.9% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.12 10.24 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [P90 \| Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.12 10.23 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.11 10.21 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.09 2.17 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.07 2.14 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.07 2.13 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.07 2.13 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.03 2.05 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=karambit-brute) [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $1.03 2.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $40.64 81.28 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $40.64 81.28 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $40.64 81.28 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $40.64 81.28 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $125 250 coins 2.42x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $51.77 104 coins $40.64 81.28 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.77 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.1% Covert 0.2% Immortal 0.2% other 0.2% gold 10.0% classified 45.0% Legendary 5.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% violet 5.0% restricted 10.0% Mythical 5.0% mil spec 4.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt