--- title: "Karambit Kit case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Karambit Kit ($19.98) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.05% over 1,260 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Karambit Kit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Karambit Kit A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=all) Price · $19.98 · 39.96 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $17.98 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.05% · 1,260 openings, odds method Variance · 24.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 55 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 103 openings · below min 7 days · 97.76% ±31.26 942 openings 30 days · 89.05% ±27.03 1,260 openings since tracking started · 89.05% ±27.03 1,260 openings -0.5% 83.3% 167.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=24h) | 103 | 71.66% ±94.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=7d) | 942 | 97.76% ±31.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit) | 1,260 | 89.05% ±27.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/karambit-kit?window=all) | 1,260 | 89.05% ±27.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,260 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,481 4,962 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,731 3,462 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,571 3,142 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $871 1,741 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $751 1,501 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $610 1,220 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $534 1,068 coins | 44.6% | 16 | 18.9 | 0.85× | | [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $313 627 coins | 39.2% | 34 | 28.3 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,207 | 1208.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $1,731 3,462 coins 86.64x 2026-11-07 11:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $871 1,741 coins 43.58x 2026-11-05 03:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $610 1,220 coins 30.54x 2026-11-06 21:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-10 08:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-10 01:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-10 00:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-10 00:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-07 17:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins $534 1,068 coins 26.74x 2026-11-06 23:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=karambit-kit) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-field-tested) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $19.98 39.96 coins $313 627 coins 15.68x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $19.98 39.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.98 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.9% covert knife 0.1% Covert 0.1% #4b69ff 95.9% best hit $1,731 (86.64x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt