--- title: "Katowice Jackpot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Katowice Jackpot ($453.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 143.31% over 336 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot rendered: 2026-11-11T19:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Katowice Jackpot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Katowice Jackpot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=all) Price · $453.16 · 906 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $407.84 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 143.31% · 336 openings, odds method Variance · 12.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 143.92% ±38.30 328 openings 30 days · 143.31% ±37.84 336 openings since tracking started · 143.31% ±37.84 336 openings -0.5% 146.8% 294.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.47% – 181.15%, 336 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=24h) | 8 | 48.26% ±245.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=7d) | 328 | 143.92% ±38.3 | +2.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot) | 336 | 143.31% ±37.8 | +2.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/katowice-jackpot?window=all) | 336 | 143.31% ±37.8 | +2.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 336 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 143 | $9,909 19,817 coins | 17.0% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.55× | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 15.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,581 3,163 coins | 19.4% | 22 | 16.8 | 1.31× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1,208 2,416 coins | 20.7% | 26 | 23.5 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 13 | $747 1,494 coins | 14.7% | 35 | 26.9 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 10.0% | $253 506 coins | 6.2% | 30 | 33.6 | 0.89× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 68.3% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 0.1% | 215 | 229.3 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $52.4K 104,780 coins 115.6x 2026-11-09 17:21 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-09 17:19 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-09 17:12 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-07 22:57 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $9,909 19,817 coins 21.87x 2026-11-05 21:58 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 906 coins $6,328 12,655 coins 13.96x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $453 906 coins $1,581 3,163 coins 3.49x 2026-11-10 19:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $453 906 coins $1,581 3,163 coins 3.49x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=katowice-jackpot) [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $453 906 coins $253 506 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $453 906 coins $747 1,494 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $453 906 coins $747 1,494 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $453 906 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $453 906 coins $1,208 2,416 coins 2.67x 2026-11-10 19:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $453 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.8% covert 20.0% rare 10.0% restricted 68.3% best hit $52.4K (115.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt