--- title: "KEKW case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "KEKW ($1,461.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 114.09% over 46 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw rendered: 2026-11-12T00:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [KEKW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · KEKW A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=all) Price · $1,461.92 · 2,924 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,315.73 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.09% · 46 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min 84.5% 114.0% 143.5% **Small sample.** 46 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=7d) | 46 | 114.09% ±28.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw) | 46 | 114.09% ±28.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/kekw?window=all) | 46 | 114.09% ±28.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 286 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 132 | $7,335 14,669 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3,722 7,444 coins | 16.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.13× | | [Sticker \| seang@res (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seang-res-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 17 | $3,155 6,310 coins | 14.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 17 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 11.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 12.0% | $1,701 3,402 coins | 15.5% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 12.5% | $1,301 2,602 coins | 12.4% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $1,002 2,005 coins | 9.5% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.70× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 13.0% | $602 1,204 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 13.5% | $501 1,002 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 17.5% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 0.3% | 8 | 8.0 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $10.4K 20,866 coins 7.14x 2026-11-08 23:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $7,335 14,669 coins 5.02x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,722 7,444 coins 2.55x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,722 7,444 coins 2.55x 2026-11-08 23:35 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,722 7,444 coins 2.55x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC [Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seang-res-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,155 6,310 coins 2.16x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC [Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seang-res-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,155 6,310 coins 2.16x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC [Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seang-res-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,155 6,310 coins 2.16x 2026-11-05 09:43 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 1.73x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 1.73x 2026-11-05 09:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=kekw) [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.69x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.69x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [JohnDoe77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/JohnDoe77) $1,462 2,924 coins $1,701 3,402 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $1,301 2,602 coins 0.89x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $602 1,204 coins 0.41x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $3,722 7,444 coins 2.55x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $501 1,002 coins 0.34x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $1,701 3,402 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.69x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1,462 2,924 coins $602 1,204 coins 0.41x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,462 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 56.9% extraordinary 6.1% Extraordinary 6.0% Covert 13.5% Rare 17.5% best hit $10.4K (7.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt