---
title: "Killshot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Killshot ($246.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 64.31% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Killshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Killshot

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=all)

Price · $246.63 · 493 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $221.96 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 64.31% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 20 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

2.5% 64.3% 126.0%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=7d) | 20 | 64.31% ±61.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot) | 20 | 64.31% ±61.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/killshot?window=all) | 20 | 64.31% ±61.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,381 2,761 coins | 15.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,371 2,743 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $873 1,745 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $774 1,548 coins | 10.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $564 1,128 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $331 661 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $325 650 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $277 555 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $195 391 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $130 259 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $34.73 69.46 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 12.5% | $11.04 22.07 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.16 0.32 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 17.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 3.5 | 2.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins $1,381 2,761 coins 5.60x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $247 493 coins $774 1,548 coins 3.14x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=killshot)

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins $1,381 2,761 coins 5.60x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $247 493 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins $0.16 0.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 493 coins $34.73 69.46 coins 0.14x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $247 493 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 493 coins $34.73 69.46 coins 0.14x 2026-11-07 02:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $247 | 90.00% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Classified 10.5% classified 12.5% #D32CE6 3.0% #EB4B4B 3.0% covert 15.0% restricted 18.5% #d32ee6 8.0% blue 12.0% Common 17.5% best hit $1,381 (5.60x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt