--- title: "Knife Kingdom case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knife Kingdom ($124.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.94% over 2,360 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Knife Kingdom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Knife Kingdom A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=all) Price · $124.88 · 250 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $112.39 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.94% · 2,360 openings, odds method Variance · 39.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 120 openings · below min 7 days · 84.02% ±44.18 769 openings 30 days · 82.94% ±25.22 2,360 openings since tracking started · 82.94% ±25.22 2,360 openings -0.5% 107.8% 216.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=24h) | 120 | 103.69% ±111.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=7d) | 769 | 84.02% ±44.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom) | 2,360 | 82.94% ±25.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-kingdom?window=all) | 2,360 | 82.94% ±25.2 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,384 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 7.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 13.2% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 385 | $6,562 13,124 coins | 15.2% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 16.9% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 286 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 18.4% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $253 506 coins | 4.5% | 44 | 47.7 | 0.92× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 27.2% | $59.01 118 coins | 14.3% | 640 | 648.9 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 69.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,671 | 1655.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $125 250 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 64.70x 2026-11-06 14:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $125 250 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 64.70x 2026-11-03 00:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $125 250 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 64.70x 2026-11-03 00:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $125 250 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 64.70x 2026-11-02 23:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 62.08x 2026-11-05 18:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 62.08x 2026-11-02 23:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,444 14,887 coins 59.61x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,444 14,887 coins 59.61x 2026-11-04 04:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,444 14,887 coins 59.61x 2026-11-04 00:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $7,444 14,887 coins 59.61x 2026-11-03 00:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=knife-kingdom) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $125 250 coins $59.01 118 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% #EB4B4B 0.3% Knives 0.4% Covert 2.0% covert knife 27.2% #4b69ff 69.4% best hit $8,079 (64.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt