--- title: "Knife Snipe case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knife Snipe ($0.34) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.60% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.33% over 14K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Knife Snipe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Knife Snipe A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=all) Price · $0.34 · 0.67 coins Advertised RTP · 89.60% · EV $0.30 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.33% · 14K openings, odds method Variance · 105.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.03% ±48.33 1,734 openings 7 days · 86.95% ±17.94 12.6K openings 30 days · 93.33% ±17.04 14K openings since tracking started · 93.33% ±17.04 14K openings 28.0% 77.0% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=24h) | 1,734 | 77.03% ±48.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=7d) | 12.6K | 86.95% ±17.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe) | 14K | 93.33% ±17.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knife-snipe?window=all) | 14K | 93.33% ±17.0 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $333 665 coins | 11.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.30 6.59 coins | 22.0% | 279 | 279.2 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.28 6.56 coins | 21.9% | 290 | 279.2 | 1.04× | | [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.28 6.55 coins | 21.8% | 286 | 279.2 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.27 6.53 coins | 21.8% | 254 | 279.2 | 0.91× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 32.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.5% | 4,463 | 4467.8 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 2,737 | 2792.4 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.7% | 5,651 | 5583.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins $333 665 coins 992.9x 2026-11-08 02:01 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins $333 665 coins 992.9x 2026-11-04 11:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=knife-snipe) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [Titan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Titan) $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Titan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Titan) $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.67 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.34 | 89.60% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 2.0% covert 0.0% mil spec 2.0% Mythical 2.0% Consumer Grade 2.0% #4b69ff 72.0% consumer 20.0% best hit $333 (992.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.60 on average: an expected loss of $10.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt