--- title: "Knifer case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Knifer ($29.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 86.78% over 3,189 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Knifer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Knifer A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=all) Price · $29.64 · 59.28 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $26.68 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.78% · 3,189 openings, odds method Variance · 105.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 208 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 287 openings · below min 7 days · 82.87% ±41.36 2,365 openings 30 days · 86.78% ±35.62 3,189 openings since tracking started · 86.78% ±35.62 3,189 openings -0.5% 115.0% 230.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=24h) | 287 | 111.23% ±118.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=7d) | 2,365 | 82.87% ±41.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer) | 3,189 | 86.78% ±35.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifer?window=all) | 3,189 | 86.78% ±35.6 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,189 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,900 19,800 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,847 19,695 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,398 18,795 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,493 2,987 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,461 2,922 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,454 2,909 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,449 2,899 coins | 5.4% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.20× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $59.51 119 coins | 4.5% | 56 | 63.8 | 0.88× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $58.23 116 coins | 4.4% | 71 | 63.8 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $57.70 115 coins | 4.3% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $57.67 115 coins | 4.3% | 64 | 63.8 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $57.57 115 coins | 4.3% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $57.54 115 coins | 4.3% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $57.14 114 coins | 4.3% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $56.78 114 coins | 4.3% | 77 | 63.8 | 1.21× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $56.77 114 coins | 4.3% | 75 | 63.8 | 1.18× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $56.76 114 coins | 4.3% | 62 | 63.8 | 0.97× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $56.72 113 coins | 4.3% | 64 | 63.8 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 77.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,463 | 2472.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $9,925 19,850 coins 334.9x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $9,483 18,967 coins 320.0x 2026-11-03 17:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,493 2,987 coins 50.38x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [YodaGuy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/YodaGuy) $29.64 59.28 coins $1,493 2,987 coins 50.38x 2026-11-03 00:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 49.29x 2026-11-08 14:58 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 49.29x 2026-11-07 13:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,454 2,909 coins 49.07x 2026-11-10 18:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,454 2,909 coins 49.07x 2026-11-10 10:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,454 2,909 coins 49.07x 2026-11-08 15:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,454 2,909 coins 49.07x 2026-11-05 00:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=knifer) [★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $57.67 115 coins 1.95x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $59.51 119 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $57.67 115 coins 1.95x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $57.54 115 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.64 59.28 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 48.90x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.64 | 90.00% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.3% #EB4B4B 0.0% legendary 0.1% Covert 2.1% covert knife 4.0% #ffd700 2.0% Immortal 2.0% gold 4.0% consumer 77.5% best hit $9,925 (334.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt