---
title: "Knifey case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Knifey ($298.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 126.86% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Knifey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Knifey

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=all)

Price · $298.83 · 598 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $268.94 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 126.86% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 131.8% 264.0%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=7d) | 3 | 126.86% ±136.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey) | 3 | 126.86% ±136.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/knifey?window=all) | 3 | 126.86% ±136.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 25 | $1,353 2,706 coins | 20.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 20 | $1,050 2,099 coins | 19.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $608 1,217 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $593 1,186 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $588 1,175 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $550 1,099 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $268 536 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $259 517 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $129 258 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $125 251 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $121 242 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $117 234 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $63.33 127 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $56.77 114 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $33.72 67.44 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $29.05 58.1 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $26.67 53.33 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $18.85 37.69 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $18.43 36.85 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $299 598 coins $588 1,175 coins 1.97x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $299 598 coins $550 1,099 coins 1.84x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=knifey)

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $299 598 coins $588 1,175 coins 1.97x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $299 598 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $299 598 coins $550 1,099 coins 1.84x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $299 | 90.00% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.7% Covert 5.0% #ffd700 5.0% covert knife 21.8% #EB4B4B 3.9% other 3.9% gold 3.9% classified 3.9% Industrial Grade 3.9% Mil Spec Grade 3.9% restricted 3.9% blue 3.9% consumer 7.9% industrial 5.0% best hit $588 (1.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt