--- title: "Krakow Colony case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Krakow Colony ($339.36) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 179.50% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony rendered: 2026-11-12T00:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Krakow Colony](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Krakow Colony A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=all) Price · $339.36 · 679 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $305.42 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 179.50% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 89.5% 176.5% 263.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=7d) | 32 | 179.50% ±83.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony) | 32 | 179.50% ±83.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/krakow-colony?window=all) | 32 | 179.50% ±83.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 400 | $6,930 13,859 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 133 | $3,915 7,830 coins | 9.6% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| ropz (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 133 | $3,290 6,581 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| keev (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keev-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $2,948 5,895 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| kennyS (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 80 | $2,398 4,797 coins | 9.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| electronic (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 80 | $2,190 4,380 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| LEGIJA (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-legija-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 50 | $1,473 2,947 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 44 | $1,410 2,820 coins | 10.4% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 44 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 44 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 85.0% | $5.19 10.38 coins | 1.4% | 23 | 27.2 | 0.85× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $3,915 7,830 coins 11.54x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $3,915 7,830 coins 11.54x 2026-11-07 15:47 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $2,398 4,797 coins 7.07x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | electronic (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $2,190 4,380 coins 6.45x 2026-11-07 15:47 UTC [Sticker | LEGIJA (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-legija-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,473 2,947 coins 4.34x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $339 679 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 3.68x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=krakow-colony) [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $3,915 7,830 coins 11.54x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $2,398 4,797 coins 7.07x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $339 679 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $339 679 coins $5.19 10.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $339 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 1.3% #EB4B4B 0.8% Ancient 2.8% other 3.3% extraordinary 5.8% Sticker 1.3% classified 85.0% best hit $3,915 (11.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt