--- title: "Lake case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lake ($84.42) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 86.86% over 1,624 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake rendered: 2026-11-11T15:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lake A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=all) Price · $84.42 · 169 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $75.97 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.86% · 1,624 openings, odds method Variance · 95.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 94.46% ±59.55 1,034 openings 30 days · 86.86% ±47.52 1,624 openings since tracking started · 86.86% ±47.52 1,624 openings 34.5% 94.5% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=7d) | 1,034 | 94.46% ±59.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake) | 1,624 | 86.86% ±47.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lake?window=all) | 1,624 | 86.86% ±47.5 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,624 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,150 4,300 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,672 3,343 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,402 2,805 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 11 | $501 1,001 coins | 59.3% | 155 | 146.2 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $401 802 coins | 4.7% | 14 | 14.6 | 0.96× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $129 258 coins | 17.0% | 180 | 162.4 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 80.0% | $0.70 1.41 coins | 0.7% | 1,273 | 1299.2 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $5,893 11,786 coins 69.81x 2026-11-08 07:58 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $5,893 11,786 coins 69.81x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:29 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:29 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [syltfanxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/syltfanxx) $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:26 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:25 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:24 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lake) [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) [syltfanxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/syltfanxx) $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $501 1,001 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 10:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 169 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $84.42 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% covert 0.0% Knives 0.0% uncommon 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% Immortal 9.0% covert knife 0.9% #ffd700 10.0% mil spec 80.0% best hit $5,893 (69.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt