--- title: "Large Pot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Large Pot ($26.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 78.76% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot rendered: 2026-11-11T15:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Large Pot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Large Pot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=all) Price · $26.16 · 52.31 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $23.54 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.76% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 28.5% 78.8% 129.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=7d) | 16 | 78.76% ±49.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot) | 16 | 78.76% ±49.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/large-pot?window=all) | 16 | 78.76% ±49.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $73.42 147 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $73.36 147 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $72.32 145 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $72.29 145 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $65.49 131 coins | 8.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $59.78 120 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $58.26 117 coins | 12.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $56.76 114 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.81 112 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.53 25.05 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 59.0% | $5.02 10.04 coins | 12.6% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=large-pot) [★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $65.49 131 coins 2.50x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $72.32 145 coins 2.77x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $12.53 25.05 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.16 52.31 coins $58.26 117 coins 2.23x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.16 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% restricted 2.0% mil spec 61.0% extraordinary 2.0% covert knife 5.0% classified 5.0% gold 5.0% industrial 5.0% #87c7ff 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt