--- title: "Last Chance case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Last Chance ($7.81) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 13 items with odds, observed 78.51% over 1,807 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance rendered: 2026-11-11T18:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Last Chance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Last Chance A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=all) Price · $7.81 · 15.61 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $7.02 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.51% · 1,807 openings, odds method Variance · 23.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95 openings · below min 7 days · 81.15% ±27.17 1,235 openings 30 days · 78.51% ±22.46 1,807 openings since tracking started · 78.51% ±22.46 1,807 openings -0.5% 86.0% 172.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=24h) | 95 | 73.64% ±98.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=7d) | 1,235 | 81.15% ±27.2 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance) | 1,807 | 78.51% ±22.5 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-chance?window=all) | 1,807 | 78.51% ±22.5 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,813 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 13,333 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $97.15 194 coins | 13.8% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $93.07 186 coins | 13.3% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $89.99 180 coins | 12.8% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $81.41 163 coins | 11.6% | 22 | 18.1 | 1.21× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $75.70 151 coins | 10.8% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $58.47 117 coins | 8.3% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $46.50 93 coins | 6.6% | 10 | 18.1 | 0.55× | | [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $14.82 29.64 coins | 6.3% | 58 | 54.4 | 1.07× | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 5.4% | 61 | 54.4 | 1.12× | | [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.36 22.71 coins | 4.9% | 38 | 54.4 | 0.70× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 84.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 1,542 | 1522.6 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=last-chance) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.81 15.61 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.81 | 89.94% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 1.0% industrial 4.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% Industrial 1.0% Mythical 1.0% #87c7ff 3.0% light blue 3.0% #4b69ff 84.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt