--- title: "Last Knight case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Last Knight ($0.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.66% from 16 items with odds, observed 79.10% over 10K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Last Knight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Last Knight A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=all) Price · $0.40 · 0.8 coins Advertised RTP · 89.66% · EV $0.36 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.10% · 10K openings, odds method Variance · 857.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.06% ±192.95 885 openings 7 days · 77.98% ±61.42 8,733 openings 30 days · 79.10% ±57.30 10K openings since tracking started · 79.10% ±57.30 10K openings -0.5% 133.5% 267.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=24h) | 885 | 74.06% ±193.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=7d) | 8,733 | 77.98% ±61.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight) | 10K | 79.10% ±57.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/last-knight?window=all) | 10K | 79.10% ±57.3 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,441 4,881 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,707 3,413 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $824 1,648 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $797 1,594 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $508 1,016 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $266 531 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $254 507 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $127 254 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.99× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $82.24 164 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $81.27 163 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $77.91 156 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $26.46 52.92 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.24 28.47 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.54 1.07 coins | 52.2% | 3,555 | 3514.3 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 64.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.9% | 6,476 | 6518.0 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $254 507 coins 634.3x 2026-11-10 11:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $254 507 coins 634.3x 2026-11-10 11:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $254 507 coins 634.3x 2026-11-07 23:54 UTC [FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $127 254 coins 317.9x 2026-11-09 20:14 UTC [FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $127 254 coins 317.9x 2026-11-07 18:35 UTC [FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $127 254 coins 317.9x 2026-11-04 10:18 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $82.24 164 coins 205.6x 2026-11-06 22:28 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $82.24 164 coins 205.6x 2026-11-03 08:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $81.27 163 coins 203.2x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $81.27 163 coins 203.2x 2026-11-07 23:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=last-knight) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 0.8 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.40 | 89.66% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% covert 0.0% other 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #4B69FF 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 0.0% knifes 0.0% mil spec 35.0% industrial 0.0% #4b69ff 64.9% best hit $254 (634.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.66 on average: an expected loss of $10.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt