--- title: "Latch case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Latch ($30.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 145.50% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Latch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Latch A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=all) Price · $30.25 · 60.5 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $27.22 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 145.50% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min 89.5% 144.8% 200.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=7d) | 8 | 145.50% ±53.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch) | 8 | 145.50% ±53.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/latch?window=all) | 8 | 145.50% ±53.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $102 204 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $68.84 138 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $65.26 131 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $62.08 124 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $59.39 119 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $53.72 107 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.61 101 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 14 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $24.29 48.58 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $20.37 40.73 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $18.85 37.69 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $18.43 36.85 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $17.02 34.03 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $12.04 24.08 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 11.0% | $7.36 14.71 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 12.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=latch) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $65.26 131 coins 2.16x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $18.43 36.85 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $102 204 coins 3.37x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $62.08 124 coins 2.05x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $7.36 14.71 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $30.25 60.5 coins $18.85 37.69 coins 0.62x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $59.39 119 coins 1.96x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $30.25 60.5 coins $18.85 37.69 coins 0.62x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.25 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 10.0% restricted 26.0% covert 11.0% other 4.0% uncommon 7.0% Uncommon 7.0% industrial 7.0% Mil Spec Grade 7.0% consumer 21.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt