--- title: "Lavish case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lavish ($3.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.20% over 5,925 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lavish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lavish A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=all) Price · $3.89 · 7.77 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.50 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.20% · 5,925 openings, odds method Variance · 99.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 103 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 59.59% ±72.65 724 openings 7 days · 101.72% ±30.13 4,209 openings 30 days · 91.20% ±25.39 5,925 openings since tracking started · 91.20% ±25.39 5,925 openings -0.5% 66.3% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=24h) | 724 | 59.59% ±72.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=7d) | 4,209 | 101.72% ±30.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish) | 5,925 | 91.20% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lavish?window=all) | 5,925 | 91.20% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,925 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,335 14,669 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,331 2,662 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $800 1,600 coins | 5.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.70× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $517 1,035 coins | 10.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.72× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $366 732 coins | 10.5% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $156 311 coins | 11.1% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $52.51 105 coins | 7.5% | 20 | 29.6 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 7.7% | 56 | 59.3 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 6.9% | 46 | 59.3 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $21.58 43.15 coins | 6.2% | 60 | 59.3 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 8.4% | 132 | 118.5 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.27 26.54 coins | 7.6% | 123 | 118.5 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.59 15.17 coins | 6.5% | 210 | 177.8 | 1.18× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) | 89.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.6% | 5,253 | 5275.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1,331 2,662 coins 342.7x 2026-11-05 20:08 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1,331 2,662 coins 342.7x 2026-11-05 10:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1,331 2,662 coins 342.7x 2026-11-05 10:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $800 1,600 coins 205.9x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.89 7.77 coins $800 1,600 coins 205.9x 2026-11-05 21:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) [PrimeFlint1959](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/PrimeFlint1959) $3.89 7.77 coins $800 1,600 coins 205.9x 2026-11-04 18:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $800 1,600 coins 205.9x 2026-11-03 06:17 UTC [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $517 1,035 coins 133.2x 2026-11-10 05:00 UTC [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $517 1,035 coins 133.2x 2026-11-06 17:11 UTC [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [conR](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/conR) $3.89 7.77 coins $517 1,035 coins 133.2x 2026-11-05 23:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lavish) [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $14.61 29.21 coins 3.76x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $13.27 26.54 coins 3.42x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.89 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% rare 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% classified 4.0% mil spec 1.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% Uncommon 89.0% best hit $1,331 (342.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt