--- title: "Legendary case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Legendary ($81.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 83.38% over 1,401 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Legendary A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=all) Price · $81.05 · 162 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $72.94 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.38% · 1,401 openings, odds method Variance · 31.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 68 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 71.50% ±41.42 707 openings 30 days · 83.38% ±29.42 1,401 openings since tracking started · 83.38% ±29.42 1,401 openings -0.5% 100.0% 200.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=24h) | 40 | 25.82% ±174.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=7d) | 707 | 71.50% ±41.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary) | 1,401 | 83.38% ±29.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/legendary?window=all) | 1,401 | 83.38% ±29.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,401 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,862 17,724 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,429 | $7,651 15,302 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $3,948 7,896 coins | 8.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 444 | $2,469 4,937 coins | 7.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $2,023 4,047 coins | 8.3% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 167 | $1,317 2,634 coins | 10.8% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $893 1,787 coins | 9.8% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $667 1,334 coins | 9.1% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× | | [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 50 | $333 667 coins | 9.1% | 21 | 28.0 | 0.75× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $179 358 coins | 7.4% | 31 | 42.0 | 0.74× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $56.31 113 coins | 3.1% | 60 | 56.0 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $51.39 103 coins | 2.8% | 53 | 56.0 | 0.95× | | [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 20 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 1.9% | 78 | 70.0 | 1.11× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 78.7% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,110 | 1103.1 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $8,862 17,724 coins 109.3x 2026-11-04 00:26 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $3,948 7,896 coins 48.71x 2026-11-04 22:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $3,948 7,896 coins 48.71x 2026-11-04 19:17 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [YodaGuy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/YodaGuy) $81.05 162 coins $3,948 7,896 coins 48.71x 2026-11-03 00:57 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 30.46x 2026-11-06 13:41 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 30.46x 2026-11-04 03:42 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 30.46x 2026-11-04 00:52 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 30.46x 2026-11-03 21:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 24.97x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 24.97x 2026-11-04 19:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=legendary) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $81.05 162 coins $56.31 113 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $81.05 162 coins $51.39 103 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $81.05 162 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.05 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 5.3% legendary 0.1% Covert 0.8% uncommon 7.0% other 3.0% mil spec 4.0% #4b69ff 78.7% best hit $8,862 (109.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt